Will Dan Goonan Knock Dan O’Neil Out as Alderman at Large?
Ex-Fire Chief’s Candidacy Positions Him as Contender as Mayor Joyce Craig’s Successor — OPINION
MANCHESTER, NH — The announcement by former Fire Chief Dan Goonan that he is a candidate for alderman-at-large has raised questions as to whether Daniel P. O’Neil can hold on to his seat.
Goonan is a registered Republican.
A Democrat, Danny O’Neil has been an alderman-at-large since the position was created by City Charter revisions in the 1990s. He has served 12 terms in the position, being first elected to the office in 1997. He earlier served as alderman from Ward Four.
In his announcement statement, Goonan took a thinly veiled swipe at O’Neil:
“Some individuals have spent decades on the board, and it’s time for change.”
Although a registered Republican, Goonan will have a broad appeal to independent voters and many Democrats. As chief, Goonan developed a reputation for independence and for “walking the middle path,” as one pundit put it privately.
Since Goonan proved that he is concerned with the homeless and dedicated to helping ease their plight, he is unlikely to stir up much enthusiasm towards rank and file Republicans, as the GOP has become the party of Donald Trump.
If Joe Kelly Levasseur decides to put his dream of being Mayor of Manchester on the backburner and run again for alderman-at-large, he is guaranteed reelection. Levasseur has staked a position to the opposite of Dan Goonan, as someone antagonistic to the homeless.
Levasseur has also come out publicly as an opponent of Safe Station, in which people with substance abuse problems can go their local fire station and ask for help. This program was near and dear to Chief Goonan.
Former Ward 6 Alderman Elizabeth Moreau, a Levasseur acolyte, will try to use resentment against the homeless to boost her run for alderman-at-large. Her candidacy is hampered by her lack of appeal to moderate voters.
The Odds Have a Habit of Evening Out
Elizabeth Moreau has little chance of being elected. The same is true about Democrat June Trisciani, an announced candidate for alderman-at-large, whose main qualification for the office seems to be she is a friend of Mayor Joyce Craig. Trisciani has never run for elective office before, and — aside from the office of mayor — alderman-at-large is the toughest nut to crack in municipal politics.
There are two aldermen-at-large on the Board of Mayor and Aldermen. Since the office was created, four people have served in the position: Dan O’Neil (1998-present), Richard H. Girard (1998–2000), Mike Lopez (2000–2012), and Joseph Kelly Levasseur (2012-present).
With Dan Goonan in the race, it is doubtful June Trisciani will make it into the final four to stand election in November. But perhaps she can confound the odds.
She likely can count on Emily’s List and other political action committees that boost women candidates, as well as PACs that have supported Joyce Craig. The teachers union likely will back her, though the Fire Fighters union remain the most politically potent PAC in the city.
Since the rise of Donald Trump the Fire Fighters union rank and file isn’t as enthusiastic as it once was supporting Democratic candidates. They likely will be enthusiastic supporting their former chief, as he could have a hand in approving and possibly negotiating their next contract with the City. And he’s a Republican.
The situation is illustrative of how the Democratic Party has lost contact with working class white people. (Reportedly, the fire fighter contingent — a force of over 250 — is entirely male and entirely white.) The Democratic Party, it has been said, is now the party of the upper middle class, blacks, and the Hispanic working class, though the rather robust level of Trump support amongst the latter shows the Latinx community to be far from monolithic. Most consider themselves white and like the promise of upward mobility that is part of the American Dream.
Since Manchester, New Hampshire remains largely white and could hardly be characterized as upper middle class, Democrats other than Joyce Craig should be worried that their embrace of a “Woke” agenda doesn’t hurt them at the voting booth. However, when True Believers enlist in the cause of Righteousness, their morality generally blinds them to such practical considerations as the exigencies of retail politics call for.
That need not discourage them: Most politicians of both parties count on the fact that most Americans are apathetic and stupid, politically. Besides which, their cynicism allows them to shed one position for another as well as lie and dissemble when the time comes. Lying is the first skill a candidate must master to be successful, and it helps the elected pol remain in office. As does the skill of shaking the money tree.
To win, Dan Goonan is going to need lots of money. It costs $30,000, minimum, to wage a citywide campaign with any chance of success.
What does this spell for the future of Danny O’Neil? Joyce Craig reportedly has put up a friend to run against him, and now he faces the specter of the well known “Chief Goonan” running against him.
The top four vote-getters get into the primary, and as of now, I forecast this order or finishers in September:
- Joseph Kelly Levasseur
- Daniel P. O’Neil
- Dan Goonan
- Toss-Up: Elizabeth Moreau or June Triscanti
If a third registered Democrat gets into the race, the New Hampshire Democratic Party technically cannot play favorites until after the Primary. However, there is all sorts of ways around this.
The Young Democrats organization technically is unaffiliated with the New Hampshire Democratic Party, though they share the same headquarters. That they are separate is a legal fiction, but a convenient one, as through the YD, the party can funnel money to favored candidates.
The payoff for June Triscanti — should she make the Final Four — would come after the Primary, as she would then receive full NHDP support as a Democratic candidate.
For Dan Goonan, the support he received from the Republican Party in the final might not be generous, but it would be — to paraphrase the late Marlon Brando when asked about what it was like to be famous — “Better than getting poked in the eye with a stick.”
Danny’s Dilemma
After the recent semi-scandal over his alleged employment by a Massachusetts lobbying firm — a situation capitalized on by Elizabeth Moreau — Danny O’Neil has been weakened politically. If June Triscianti makes it into the final four, she might deliver the coup de grâce to his long and successful political career.
Already, the lawns of the hipper, more progressive Democrats that are 110% behind Joyce Craig sport TRISCANTI FOR ALDERMAN-AT-LARGE signs.
A great deal of Manchester voters, judging by the returns, vote for only one alderman-at-large candidate, casting away their second crack at the ballot like it was something offensive. Blank ballots often outscore the traditional top vote-getters for alderman-at-large, Levasseur and O’Neil.
Danny’s Dilemma is that many politically dedicated voters, thinking in strategic terms, already consider him a favorite. Strategic voters are known to forget their second vote and give their favorite a “bullet” — that is, vote once and only once for their favorite candidate. That would be particularly true with Triscianti supporters, as they’d feel that with a bullet, she’d be more likely to win than if they gave O’Neil their second vote.
Danny’s Other Dilemma is Danny Goonan.
Dan Goonan’s positions seem to spell D-E-M-O-C-R-A-T in a city where independent is the top party affilIation, and this could divert the first or second votes of otherwise partisan Democrats from O’Neil to Goonan. Since Goona’s party affiliation isn’t even known among the cognoscenti of Inside Manchester Politics, some Democrats voting for Triscanti might vote for the other Danny — Dan Goonan — thinking he is a Democrat.
And that will hurt Dan O’Neil.
Since Goonan surely will draw from all three pools of voters — Republican, Democrat and non-aligned — with O’Neil weakened by Triscianti, he might pull it off and become the fifth person elected alderman-at-large in the City of Manchester. He will then sit across from a nemesis of his, Joe Kelly Levasseur — the man who has tried repeatedly to close down Safe Station, the hallmark program of Goonan as Fire Department Chief.
Perhaps it is JKL he was referring to, when Dan Goonan announced the need to remove politicians who have been on the Board of Mayor and Alderman for decades. Before he did eight years as alderman-at-large, Levasseur served on the Board for one term as an alderman from Ward 3, having been elected in 1999. When Frank Guinta decided to run for alderman in Ward 3, Levasseur wisely stepped aside. Guinta had the cash to propel him from Ward 3 to Washington, D.C.
If the Chief pulls it off, he’ll be sitting in the seat vacated by Dan O’Neil. For the new alderman-at-large called Danny, to his left, at the podium, will stand Joyce Craig, sure to be re-elected as mayor as her opponents — Rich Girard and Victoria Sullivan, certified losers both in mayoral contests — are sure to sustain their losing records in 2021.
The Future is Now
It has been rumored for some time that Joyce Craig would like to move on to the governor’s office in Concord, or that Democratic Party officials would like her to do so. Should that happen, former Fire Department Chief Dan Goonan would assume the status of a front-runner to be her successor, whether or not he is elected alderman-at-large.
There simply are no heavyweight contenders, citywide, for the mayor’s office, other than former Mayor Ted Gatsas — and Joe Levasseur. Gatsas still smarts from the trimming that Joyce Craig gave him back in 2017, and Levasseur — an attorney-at-law with a thriving practice — knows a good thing when he sits in it: The alderman-at-large seat on the right of the Aldermanic Chamber.
And besides, the Little Orphan Annie/Scarlett O’Hara of Queen City politics — a true drama queen if there ever was one, a man the late Bill Cashin whose portrait adorns the Chamber said is the “best actor in Manchester” — knows that tomorrow is another day.
Win or lose come this November, Dan Goonan just might face off against Joe Kelly Levasseur in the 2023 mayoral race — if JKL ever decides to stop rehearsing, ditch community theater and make his play for the Big Time.
CREDITS
Photos @2019, 2020, 2021 by Jon Hopwood. All rights reserved.
