Sanders Forecasted to Win Every State Except Biden’s Delaware
Bernie Will Win in New Hampshire
Bernie Sanders is forecasted to place first in every state except for former Vice President home state of Delaware in simulations run by FiveThirtyEight.com, a website founded by Nate Silver and now a part of ABC News. The results are startling, and highlight the surge towards the socialist senator from Vermont that has occurred since the last televised Democratic candidates debate on CNN in January.
Nate Sanders is considered, arguably, the best political forecaster in America. His page FiveThirtyEight also forecasts sports, which led to its acquisition by ESPN, where Sanders is an executive vice president.
According to Silver, Bernie Sanders now has a 47% chance of winning enough delegates for a first ballot victory at the Democratic National Convention. The former favorite in Silver’s pre-Iowa Caucuses prognostications, Joe Biden now has a 19% chance to secure a first-ballot victory, running third behind Sanders and “No One.”
The forecast is based on computer simulations of the outcome of primaries and caucuses, based on polling data. According to the site:
FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts.
New Hampshire Primary Forecast
According to FiveThirtyEight data, Bernie Sanders will win the New Hampshire Primary, coming in first in the field with approximately 29% of the vote. Sanders has a 69% chance of finishing first in the poplar vote, whereas the runner-up in the simulations, former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who has a 25% chance of coming in first. Sanders is predicted to win 11 of the 24 delegates.
Joe Biden, who has the backing of many prominent Democrats such as John Lynch, the only person to serve four terms as governor, and State Senator Lou D’Alessandro, the author of Lion of the NH Senate: Thoughts for Presidential Hopefuls, is expected to win two or three delegates, the same forecasted count as Elizabeth Warren, who hails from neighboring Massachusetts. Mayor Pete is forecasted to win seven.
Dr. Gabriel Goodliffe, PhD, a professor at ITAM in Mexico City, believes the surge is the result of the public’s reaction to the revelations of corruption on both sides of the aisle during the impeachment trial of President Trump. Goodliffe believes that the authenticity of Sanders is attracting not just progressives, but moderate voters and working people fed up with a dysfunctional system in which the truth as limned by career politicians is hard to find.
Professor Goodliffe thinks the impeachment trial has been a significant factor in the rise of Bernie Sanders in the polls. The impeachment of Donald Trump highlighted the corruption of not just Trump and his Republican defenders in the U.S. Senate, but of the entire American political establishment.
Former Vice President Joe Biden, whose son Hunter and his machinations as a hedge fund owner that were the target of President Trump’s hunt for dirt on the man he calls “Sleep Joe” in Ukraine, was equally on trial during the impeachment proceedings. As Bernie surged, Biden plummeted.
Goodliffe says the surge toward Bernie began after Elizabeth Warren attacked Bernie Sanders for allegedly telling her that a woman could not win the presidency. Sanders vigorously denied Warren’s claim, and his belief that a woman can be elected to the White House has been a matter of public record for 32 years.
That CNN apparently midwived this attempted hit on Sanders, and followed through with it during the last Iowa debate as if it were part of Team Warren, was yet another instance of political corruption, the kind harped on constantly by Trump with his attacks on the “fake media.”
Bernie is a “Straight Shooter”
That no one but Sanders and Warren was witness to the alleged and likely imaginary conversation did not stop CNN from citing anonymous third party sources when launching the story into political orbit just before the January debate. CNN was widely criticized for apparently coordinating a premeditated smear of Bernie as sexist in cahoots with Warren, whose penchant for verbal prestidigitation has made her a mirror of President Trump.
Former New Hampshire State Rep. Joel Elber, a talk radio show personality who represented Manchester’s Ward 12 in the State House of Representatives and an enthusiastic Sanders supporter, thinks Bernie is surging because the public sees him as a “straight shooter.”
“Bernie is someone known to tell it like he sees it,” Elber said, “and speaks his mind to the American people without the nonsense Americans expect from their politicians.”
Also believing that Bernie Sanders benefitted from the brazen and patently absurd attack on his integrity by Elizabeth Warren, Elber thinks that “The People are feeling the ‘Bern” as Bernie doesn’t waffle on the issues. Bernie doesn’t play the political limbo game of ‘How Low Can You Go.’”
Resorting to the kind of colorfuls metaphor that made him a popular radio personality in the Granite State, Elber said, “You can see voters’ mouths gaping wide open while watching candidates like Warren do their stunts.
“Here in New Hampshire, we have a front seat at the political circus. We watch these clowns perpetrating the astounding feats of world-class contortionists while pandering for the gold medal. We, their audience, watch hem twist themselves into pretzels, moving to the left and then to the right and back to the left, until they’ve corkscrewed themselves off-center.”
Part of the fun, Joel believes, and part of what makes the circus riveting, is he desire to see the top performers fall off the beam and land on their ass. And the media encourages it.
Now a resident of the capitol city of Concord, Elber concluded, “By the time your average presidential aspirant is through playing political ecdysiast in Iowa, by the time they slip into New Hampshire for the first-in-the-nation primary to pull off their tired old fan dance once more time, you want to salt ’em and slather them with mustard.
“They’re pretzels! Political pretzels. Bernie’s not like that,” he said.
